Don't Fight the Fed?
Interest rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) are the two biggest levers pulling on gold prices in the short term.
Real Interest Rates
Gold competes with bonds. When interest rates are high (adjusted for inflation), bonds look attractive, and gold often dips.
When real rates are negative (inflation > interest rates), holding cash or bonds guarantees a loss. This is when gold shines.
The Pivot
Markets are constantly trying to predict when the Fed will stop hiking rates and start cutting (The Pivot).
Historically, the moment the Fed admits it has broken something and rushes to cut rates, gold begins a massive bull run.